|
Good morning!
The fourth quarter of the year inevitably produces
thoughts about "finishing strong" or, as next year's
budget process develops, "starting fresh." But with
any organization that's been around for more than a
year, there's a context: what happened last year?
…and the year before? …and the year
before that?
A good budgeting process means taking the time to
assess results over time, being mindful that it's hard
to spot trends in a single data point.
Best regards,

Bradlee T. Howe Financial Managers Trust
|
It's Hard to Spot Trends in a Single Data Point
The results were pretty obvious once you got
beyond the sports memorabilia lining the other three
walls. They were arrayed in multiple sheets of graph
paper, all along the far wall: five years' worth of
unit sales, updated in #2 pencil each week, in a
line graph overlaid with a bar graph showing
weekly revenues.
I could look back at the week when the Boston
Globe had done a special promotion, or when the
Boston Herald had been on strike, when the
Boston Post folded, and when the Boston
Record had raised its price. (Yes, kids, Boston
had four morning newspapers, and it wasn't
that long ago.) All of that was hanging on
my teen-age bedroom wall to represent the last half
of my career as a home-delivery paperboy (in
those days, we didn't learn about graphs until junior
high school, four years after I delivered my first
newspaper).
What was not displayed, tucked away in a desk
drawer, was another graph that tracked the steady
increase in my account balance at the Melrose (MA)
Savings Bank, with the goal clearly marked
— to save enough by the end of high school to
pay for the first year of college. Somewhere
along the way, early-on, I apparently had learned that
while you might go public about revenue, you seldom
divulged income, and you never mentioned assets.
We're talking Yankee values here (mindful that New
England Yankees long preceded those imposters
from New York).
But I also learned about trends: my charts
showed that sales dipped every summer when
people went on vacation. The biggest revenues
came in December (Christmas tips!). The
Globe's sales promotions ("Try us free for a
month!") weighed down my bag with extra papers,
but never had a lasting effect. And when the
Post went out of business, the Globe
picked up most of their columnists and thereby most
of their readership, so my revenues stayed the same.
In very similar fashion, my client Helen Venero,
President of VTI Corporation in Hialeah, FL,
noted during my visit there last week that even
though 2007 revenues were ahead of 2006 for the
first nine months, a big push will be required in
the fourth quarter in order to finish ahead for the
year. Last year's final three months were the best
ever as the Company accelerated production to clear
its order backlog by New Year's. She noted that
there's a healthy seasonal backlog again and that the
staffing is in place to ship it all this year without
repeating last year's overtime push.
For his part, Dan Deneault, President of Purity
Services, a long-time client in New Bedford, MA,
maintains his bar charts on Excel these days. But the
basic data entries of throughput per production hour
are annotated each week with his brief comments
about factors impacting production — new
equipment brought on-line, weather delays,
management initiatives, vendor supply issues,
machinery down-time, etc. Thus, as his
productivity has steadily increased during the past
several years, he can readily spot and account for the
anomalies and the transition points.
Mary Weiser, the long-time Controller of Vanguard Sailboat Company in
Portsmouth, RI, excels in assessing historical trends
in both revenues and expenses. As part of the
management team's monthly operational review,
Mary and her staff compare the expense in each line
item with that of prior year (and the budget) for both
the month and year-to-date, and they account for the
major differences. By maintaining a file of her notes
for each meeting, Mary can readily access what
happened a year (or two, or three) ago to identify
trends leading to the results for the current month.
All of this seems like simple stuff, and it is. What's
amazing is how few smaller companies make the
commitment to maintain and use historical
records to provide perspective on current
operations. In part this is due to high
management turnover: often the owner/president is
the only member of the management team with much
institutional memory. But in large part it results
from a failure to document what has
happened — an issue which applies to
everything from office procedures and software
code-writing to customer relations and employee
performance reviews.
Six quick-and-easy procedures can ensure that
you have the financial information you need to
provide a context for decision-making:
- Report your financial results in a consistent
format. Avoid making frequent, minor changes to
the chart of accounts.
- Make major account formatting changes at
year-end, and then recast the previous year
in the new format to provide a detailed basis for
comparison going forward.
- Array your annual results side-by-side
— income statement, balance sheet, and cash
flow statement. Using an Excel sheet and your
year-end tax return or accounting review, it's a simple
data-entry exercise. Do you see trends that you
weren't aware of? Can you account for year-to-year
anomalies?
- Make sure that your accounting staff is
maintaining the monthly results on a spreadsheet.
Ask them to insert cellular comments for each line
item that is inconsistent with recent months, or the
prior year, or the budget.
- Review this spreadsheet, line by line and
comment by comment, in the process of putting
together your budget for 2008, and…
- Resolve to hold your people accountable for
the differences.
Once I started charting the financial results of my
paper route business, the handwriting was definitely
on the wall — peddling the Globe, Herald,
Post, and Record was not alone going to
pay my way through college. Consequently, the Brad
Howe Enterprises chart of accounts included more
revenue categories through high school, but that
graph on the bedroom wall always pointed toward
the goal. The alarm clock may have woken me up
at 5:30 a.m., but those trend lines are what got me out
of bed each morning.
|
Alligator Bites
"In most organizations, control is exercised via
standard operating procedures, tight supervision,
detailed role definitions, a minimum of self-directed
time, and frequent reviews by higher-ups. These
mechanisms certainly bring people to heel, but they
also put a short leash on initiative, creativity, and
passion. Luckily there are other ways of keeping
things in check — other hows, if you will.
"For example, while the in-store teams at Whole
Foods [cited as a company 'where radical freedom is
a central part of everyday life'] have a significant
degree of discretion over staffing, pricing, and
product selection, they are also held accountable for
… monthly profitability targets, and when they
meet those goals, team members receive a bonus in
their next paycheck. Since the rewards are
team-based, associates have little tolerance for
colleagues who don't pull their weight. … Turns
out you don't need a lot of top-down discipline when
four conditions are met:
- First-line employees are responsible for results.
- Team members have access to real-time
performance data.
- They have decision authority over the key
variables that influence performance outcomes.
- There's a tight coupling between results,
compensation, and recognition."
— Excerpted from The Future of
Management by Gary Hamel
Harvard Business School Press, October 2007
— As quoted in Fortune magazine,
October 1, 2007
|
About Us
Financial Managers helps the managers of smaller
companies and non-profit organizations develop
reliable financial information for operational
decisions.
On an affordable retainer basis, FM serves as
the
part-time controller and senior financial manager for
multiple clients, leading them to profitability and
positive cash flow.
The goal is for the organization
to outgrow Financial Managers' services, at which
time FM will take the lead in identifying and hiring the
right full-time financial person for the firm, and effect
a smooth transition to his or her management.
|
Financial Managers Trust
781-799-5737 | FAX 781-788-9794
PO Box 2 Lexington MA 02420
PO Box 1527 Fort Myers FL 33902
www.finman.com
To read our privacy policy click here. © 2007 Financial Managers Trust. All rights reserved.
Newsletter developed by Blue Penguin Development
|
 |
|
EMAIL SUBSCRIPTION
|
 |
Enter your e-mail address here to subscribe to "Howe's Bayou."
|
 |
DRAINING THE SWAMP
|
 |
|
Selected Economic Data:
|
10/5/07
|
10/5/06
|
|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average
|
14,066
|
11,866 |
|
| NASDAQ Average |
2,780
|
2,306 |
|
| Prime Rate (%) |
7.75 |
8.25 |
|
| 30-yr. fixed mortgage rate (%)
|
6.16 |
6.30 |
|
| US $: Euro Exchange |
$1.41:1
|
$1.27:1 |
|
| US $: Canadian $ Exchange
|
$1.02:1
|
$.89:1 |
|
| Consumer Price Index (all)
|
207.9
|
203.7
|
|
 |
PREVIOUS NEWSLETTERS
|
 |
|